Time to fully reopen the economy VERY soon --

We could have herd immunity by the end of February!


1-28-2021 -- Anthony Fauci claims that herd immunity is possible by fall, and that we can get back to 'normality' by the end of 2021. REALLY??? Let's fact check him by the numbers.


The latest herd immunity estimates for COVID-19 are between 70% and 90%. Therefore we can already project that we may achieve herd immunity within as little as 30 days, by the end of February. That's assuming that, as estimated, 8 times more people have actually been infected with COVID-19 versus the official reported numbers. Other estimates have been between 6 and 8 times more. Furthermore, since we are vaccinating the elderly and other vulnerable people, the virus becomes even less of a threat, whether it's still circulating in great numbers or not.


210.7 million infections (26.338 million reported infections TIMES estimated 8 actual infections)

3.3 million estimated new infections in the next 30 days.

15 million estimated immune or partially immune -- 23.7 million vaccine shots already administered (some in the last 2 weeks are second shots for one person)

15 million additional estimated to be at least partially immune in 30 days -- 1.26 million vaccine shots are being administered per day = 37.8 (assume that half are receiving their second shot, and that shots received later in the month take a few more weeks to take effect).

244 million TOTAL immune divided by 330 million US population = 73.9%


One additional month of vaccinations and infections could bring us to about 80% of the US population being immune. That's assuming that there's 8 times more infections than officially reported.


NOTE: A November 2020 poll found that 39% of Americans don't want to get vaccinated. That would indicate that just over 201 million want to get vaccinated. It is estimated to take about 7 months to vaccinate 61% of the population.


UPDATE for 2/11/2021: 167.94 million to 223.92 million Americans are estimated to have actually been infected (6 to 8 times 27.99 million reported cases). 48 million vaccine doses have been administered. 19.2 million of those doses are estimated to be second doses administered to the same individual (40/60 rule). That leaves 28.8 million people who have received one shot and have 50% protection level against the virus. And so, 19.2 million divided by 2 equals 38.4 million people who presumably have enough immunity to avoid becoming so sick that they require hospitalization.

Therefore we estimate that 206.34 million to 262.32 million Americans are immune or immune enough. That puts us currently at 62.5% to 80% of Americans. While Anthony Fauci has estimated the herd immunity threshold to be between 70% and 90%, we need to consider that the most vulnerable people have been getting vaccinated first. The people who are last in line are not at any great risk. This makes for an even greater case to reopen the economy now.



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