6/28/2021 Update on estimating immunity


covidScientists estimate 60% to 70% to be the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19. In predicting when we might reach herd immunity, we need to know how many people have been vaccinated, the pace at which people are getting at least one dose of a vaccine, and then we need to know how many people have actually been infected by the virus. The latter is the big question.


A study published in PLOS ONE, claims that we actually have had nearly three times as many actual COVID cases as confirmed cases. Not surprisingly, the politicized CDC has adopted something close to this low estimate. The CDC estimated only 83.1 million cases only through December of 2020, however the CDC have proven themselves to be politicized fear merchants, so we always question them.


The study that may be most accurate, is that of a research team at Columbia University that estimated that only 36% of Americans (118.15 million) had been infected as of January 28, 2021. And they estimated that in the most recent months, due to increased testing, there had been only 4 times more infections than reported. That's 3.01 million times 4 (or 12.04 million) were infected from February 1 until June 8. Therefore, about 130.19 million people (or 39.33% of the entire US population) have natual immunity.


191 million people (or 57.7% of the total US population) have had at least one dose of the vaccine. We should assume that 39.33% of the remaining 42.3% have natural immunity. So, 59.39 million of the remaining 140 million unvaccinated people have natural immunity.


Therefore 191 million plus 59.39 million equals 239.39 million immune out of 331 million people. That's 72.32% based on the Columbia University model. This is beyond the forementioned estimate of 60 to 70% to achieve herd immunity. It reasons that people who previously contracted the virus (and know it), are more likely not to get vaccinated, because they have essentially no need to. Therefore this 72.32% figure is likely a little higher.


It gets better. We are not taking into account the fact that the most vulnerable elderly and/or unhealthy people (who want to be vaccinated) have already been vaccinated. 69.7% of the US adult population has received at least one dose of a vaccine. Young people are not at any great risk and are poor vectors of the virus. 32% of the US population is under the age of 25. We might as well count the young population as having immunity, but we aren't. For this reason, deaths may eventually plummet more than cases.


Yet the politicized CDC ridiculously told us that 75% to 85% of the entire 331 million US population would need to get vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity, and we would not reach herd immunity until the end of Summer to early Fall. They laughably told us to continue wearing masks even after being vaccinated. They told us that they were "concerned" that virus cases could spike up again. The CDC lost all credibility. The virus became endemic at about 40 - 43% vaccinations.


Furthermore, "herd immunity" is an arbitrary goal post that we are told that we must reach before we can "return to normalcy". If you are vaccinated, have natural immunity, or have "youth immunity", whether some people are not vaccinated is irrelevant. You are safe!


Get ready for measures to force people to get these experimental, non-FDA approved vaccines (example: vaccine certificate required to board a flight, required by employer -- which is currently illegal, etc). Juxtapose this against the fact that the most vulnerable people (who want to get vaccinated) will already have been vaccinated, and younger people have never been at any great risk. Children are at almost zero risk. The bottom like is that the virus is fizzling out. Barring a mutation that evades vaccines and natural immunity, at the very least, the virus is done for many months to come. We can go on as normal with our lives right now -- not at the end of Summer.


4/26/2022 Update: A CDC study finds that 75% of children have gotten COVID-19 as of February 2022. 64% of adults ages 18-49, about 50% of adults ages 50-64 and 33% of adults 65 and older have gotten COVID-19. That's close to 60% of all people. That would mean that almost 200 million have had COVID-19 as of February. The CDC had previously told us that only 80.8 million have gotten COVID-19. Older people are the most vaccinated. This means that there may have beed about 3 infected people for every reported case (or 75%).


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